Published since 1923
DOI: 10.33622/0869-7019
Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI) Web of Science
  • A Probabilistic Approach To Evaluating The Risk Of Progressive Collapse
  • UDC DOI: 10.33622/0869-7019.2021.10.36-43
    Ivan I. VEDYAKOV, e-mail:
    Dmitriy V. SOLOV'EV, e-mail:
    Aleksey I. KOVALENKO
    Reserch Institute of Building Constructions (TSNIISK) named after V. A. Koucherenko, Research Center of Construction, 2-ya Institutskaya ul., 6, Moscow 109428, Russian Federation
    Abstract. The need to take into account the occurrence of emergency situations in the supporting structures of construction objects at unidentified special impacts is due to the requirements of the federal law on mechanical safety of construction objects. The existing regulatory approach often hinders the solution of the tasks of modernization and reconstruction of production facilities, the implementation of modern unique architectural concepts and does not make it possible to take into account the contribution of preventive design measures to the reliability of the structure. To form a system of regulatory documents, it is necessary to develop a methodology for assessing the risk of failure of building structures, including under special impacts. The article considers a point system for determining the risk of structural failure, taking into account the features of various structural schemes of buildings, the possibility of a number of negative events. It is proposed to assess the probability and consequences of a negative event comprehensively both by calculation method and by expert assessment in points in order to adopt the most correct and realistic engineering approach to risk assessment. In addition, a parallel is drawn between the existing approaches in probability theory, which in the future make it possible to prepare a mathematical justification of the applied point system.
    Key words: progressive collapse, risk assessment, calculation of building structures, buildings and structures of increased level of responsibility, probability theory, probabilistic methods for calculating structures.
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  • For citation: Vedyakov I. I., Solov'ev D. V., Kovalenko A. I. A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluating the Risk of Progressive Collapse. Promyshlennoe i grazhdanskoe stroitel'stvo [Industrial and Civil Engineering], 2021, no. 10, pp. 36-43. (In Russian). DOI: 10.33622/0869-7019.2021.10.36-43.