- ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING
- Applying Risk Theory to Calculating Optimal Building Thermal Protection
- UDC 624.042.7:699.86.022.3

**Alexander M. UZDIN**, e-mail: uzdin@mail.ru

**Tatyana A. BELASH**, e-mail: belashta@mail.ru

**Angelina A. IGLINA**, e-mail: iglinaangelina@yandex.ru

The St. Petersburg State Transport University of the Emperor Alexander I, Moskovsky prosp., 9, St. Petersburg 190031, Russian Federation

**Abstract**. The problem of estimating the optimal thermal protection of buildings under the conditions of Yakutia using the risk theory is considered. The theory of seismic risk, developed under the guidance of Academician L.N. Kantorovich, was adopted as the basis for investigations. To solve the problem, by analogy with the seismic action, the concept of thermal shock, the temperature drop after which the temperature gets into the given range of hazardous temperatures, was introduced. A certain temperature rating is assigned to each temperature range. The damage from the temperature drop is estimated by the power consumption necessary to maintain the indoor temperature at a comfortable level. As a parameter of thermal protection, the thickness of a heat-protective coating layer was adopted. As an analogue of seismic shaking, the probability of the temperature falling within the temperature range was assumed. The value of the expected damage (risk) and its dispersion were obtained basing on the statistical data of the temperature drops in Yakutia. As the thickness of the thermal protection coating increases, capital costs increase, but the possible damage (risk) decreases. As a result, the dependence of total costs on the thickness of coating has a minimum, which determines the optimal coating thickness. In addition to the classical risk theory, based on optimizing the mathematical expectation of costs, the density function of damage distribution is constructed, which makes it possible to determine the acceptable damage and the corresponding thickness of the thermal protection coating, minimizing the probability of exceeding the given level of damages.

**Key words**: risk, thermal protection, damage, capital costs, enclosing structures, exterior walls. - REFERENCES

1. Kantorovich L. V., Keilis-Borok V. I., Molchan G. I. Seismic risk and principles of seismic zoning. Vychislitelnye i statisticheskie metody interpretatsii seismicheskikh dannykh. Vychislitelnaya seismologiia, 1974, iss. 6, pp. 3-20. (In Russian).

2. Keilis-Borok V. I., Nersesov I. A., Iaglom A. M. Metody otsenki ekonomicheskogo effekta seismostoikogo stroitelstva [Methods to assess the economic effect of earthquake engineering]. Moscow, AN SSSR Publ., 1962. 46 p. (In Russian).

3. Bogdanova M. A., Sigidov V. V. Vulnerability functions for seismic risk assessment. Prirodnye i tekhnogennye riski. Bezopasnost sooruzhenii, 2011, no. 6, pp. 54-57. (In Russian).

4. Aizenberg Ia. M. Models of seismic risk and methodological problems of planning to mitigate seismic disasters. Seismostoikoe stroitelstvo. Bezopasnost sooruzhenii, 2004, no. 6, pp. 31-38. (In Russian).

5. Perelmuter A. V. Izbrannye problemy nadezhnosti i bezopasnosti stroitelnykh konstruktsii [Selected problems of reliability and safety of building structures]. Kiev, UkrNIIproektstalkonstruktsiia Publ., 2000. 215 p. (In Russian).

6. Bogdanova M. A., Ogneva S. S., Uzdin A. M., Chernov V. P. Estimation of confidence limits for the values of the risk. Prirodnye i tekhnogennye riski. Bezopasnost sooruzhenii, 2013, no. 3, pp. 46-49. (In Russian).

7. Bogdanova M. Iu., Sigidov V. V., Uzdin A. M., Chernov V. P. Statistical characteristics of the damage in risk theory. Sovremennaia ekonomika: problemy i resheniia, 2016, no. 5, pp. 22-30. (In Russian).

8. Bogdanova M. A., Sigidov V. V. Vulnerability functions for seismic risk assessment. Prirodnye i tekhnogennye riski. Bezopasnost sooruzhenii, 2011, no. 6, pp. 54-57. (In Russian).

9. Sergin K. S., Bogdanova M. A., Sigidov V. V., Uzdin A. M. The estimation of efficiency of investments in higher risk environments. Ekonomicheskaia kibernetika: sistemnyi analiz v ekonomike i upravlenii. St. Petersburb, SpbGUEF Publ., 2009, no. 19, pp. 90-98. (In Russian).

10. Tarify na elektroenergiiu 2016 g. PAO "YAKUTSKENERGO". Available at: http://yakutskenergo.ru/Urid_lic/tariffs/electro.php?year=2016#yearanch (accessed 01.10.2016). (In Russian).

11. Statistika gorodov Rossii. Available at: http://www.atlasyakutia.ru/weather/stat_weather_249590.php (accessed 01.10.2016). (In Russian). **For citation**: Uzdin A. M., Belash T. A., Iglina A. A. Applying Risk Theory to Calculating Optimal Building Thermal Protection.*Promyshlennoe i grazhdanskoe stroitel'stvo*[Industrial and Civil Engineering], 2017, no. 12, pp. 97-100. (In Russian).

BACK